Wasted Money! The 1989 Moldova Census is the Only Reliable Population Statistics

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Joi, 08.06.2017 11:59   1741
In 2016, the nominal GDP per capita in U.S. dollars should be 21.7% higher compared to the actual estimates released by the National Statistical Bureau (BNS), according to World Bank experts.

Translation from Romanian. The original story is HERE.

This is just one of many indicators that need to be revised following the publication of the updated 2014 population census. The updates though don’t seem to be enough to prompt any changes. 

95,800 children present in statistics but living abroad

For example, on May 31, 2017, BNS released a report about the situation of children in Moldova; it says as many as 681,300 children under the age of 18 resided in the country as of the beginning of that year. In the 2014 population census the number of children aged 0-17 was 585,449, or about 96,000 children less. 

BNS deputy director Ala Negruța explains that the difference appears because “the data on children are based on the current statistics of the population, which resided in Moldova.” She specified that “the information obtained in the 2014 population census (585,500) covers only the people who were present in the country at the time of the census, and the number corresponds to the size of the population de facto.

“The difference in 95,800 children reflects the fact that these children were outside Moldova. Both figures are correct, they just mirror different demographic states,” the official told Mold-Street.

Population decreases 100 times faster than official data show

According to the updated 2014 census report, the Moldovan population constituted approximately three million people – this is 11.4% less compared with the records from the 2004 census and 18% less compared to the records of the 1989 census. Of the total number around 210,000 people are not permanent residents. This fact should be a motive for a radical change in a number of economic indicators and public policies, according to World Bank economists who released the study “The 2014 Population Census and its Impact on Some Key Indicators.” They suggest that between 2004 and 2014 the Moldovan population decreased on average by 1.2% annually; according to the BNS the annual decrease was just 0.01%. In other words, in reality the country loses residents 100 times more than official statistical reports say.

"Supposing a continuation of the population [growth] dynamic in these censuses, in the period 2014-16, the Moldovan population should be 2.921 million in 2016, compared to 3.55 million believed to be now (a difference of 21.5%) – as BNS claims – …influencing thus the indicators per capita and the place of Moldova in the global standing, says the study in translation by Mold-Street.com.

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GDP bigger by 21.7%

In compliance with the new information on the Moldovan population the absolute levels and growth of statistical indicators per capita should be higher than we believed. The World Bank experts maintain that the following results need to be considered from the population censuses, compared to the BNS data: 

1. In 2016, the nominal GDP per capita in US dollars should be 21.7% higher than BNS’ estimates: 2,311 dollars against 1,900 dollars at present.

2. In 2015, the National Gross Income per capita according to the Atlas Method should be 20% higher than now: 2,690 dollars versus 2,240 dollars.

3. During the period 2004-2014, the real average growth of households’ consumption per capita was 6.6%, which represented a difference of 1.2% higher than actual estimates. 

4. During the period 2004-2014, the real average growth of GDP per capita was 1.1 percentage points higher than BNS suggested: 5.9% versus 4.8%. 

Another outcome of comparison from the population censuses is a considerable improvement of Moldova’s international rating. 

According to the data for 2004-2014, the real growth of GDP per capital in Moldova was above the average in Europe and Central Asia and above the level of countries with medium-large revenues. However, in spite of such an advance in global standing, Moldova’s performance in absolute values per capita is among the lowest.

1989 population census provided the most truthful data 

The World Bank economists call on Moldovan authorities to standardize the national statistical system in order to reflect the new realities. They admit that the Moldovan National Statistical Bureau does not master any appropriate methodologies and has not developed adequate capacities for collecting data on migration, and therefore it faces hardships in collecting vital information. Respectively, the results of the population censuses in 2004 and 2014 have not been covered in the current statistics.

"As a consequence certain reliable statistical data were obtained during the census in 1989. Meanwhile the new data on the [Moldovan] population may have produced implications on many aspects of the social and economic life, beyond the macroeconomic indicators per capita as discussed in the past and, as a result, on the decisions related to economic policies,” reads an informal translation of the conclusion of the study.

Funding for health and education may reduce

The new study suggests that the findings may change public policies in the health and education sectors. The financing in these sectors depends on the number of patients and students, respectively. The authorities should also apply the new knowledge in the tax related decisions. 

And here is an alarming bell: the discrepancies amplify in time and therefore it becomes critical to to improve the accuracy and reliability of the statistical data. 

The Moldovan authorities on several occasions expressed their readiness to collaborate with the World Bank and the United Nations Population Fund towards improving the quality of domestic statistical data on population by integrating the latest findings of the census into official data. Yet it’s not clear when this process will start.

Incorrect data translate into incorrect policies 

Economist Stanislav Madan, head of the market study and research department at Business Intelligent Services, a think tank, says that the population number and indicator per capita derivatives serve as a basis for numerous public policies. “Unfortunately, incorrect data can easily translate into incorrect policies, because very often the failure to plan leads results into the planning of failure,” he said. 

"The fact that BNS still uses the data on population from the 1989 census distorts the socio-economic reality. For example, erroneous data on population distribution according to the territorial principle may alter the fair allocation of resources for such sectors as healthcare, social assistance or education, and the balanced policy-making for regional development,” the expert explained.

Mr. Madan also sees two reasons of principle why the statistical authority needs to revise the indicators in the population census: 

• to have a more realistic estimate of the impact of public policies in the past and draw more relevant conclusions; 

• to project more objective forecasts for key situations such as the Medium-Term Budgetary Framework or sectorial policies. 

Yet there is one more problem in this context – the public perception about the 2014 population census sends a limited credibility and this makes even harder to answer a fundamental question for the Moldovan state: “How many of us are still here and hoe many of us count?” 

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Acest articol a fost publicat cu susținerea fundației Național Endowment for Democracy în cadrul proiectului ”Promovarea responsabilității guvernării” și poate fi preluat pentru distribuire, publicare și citare fără careva limitări. Referința la sursă este obligatorie. 

This article has been published thanks to the support of the National Endowment for Democracy as part of the Promoting Government Accountability Project and may be shared, republished or quoted without limitations. Reference to the source is mandatory.



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